Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Donato on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McCarron wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.5% vs Donato 48.1% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 84.6%
Defensive zone
McCarron 79.3%
Neutral zone
Donato 56.2%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 54.9%
54.9%
45.1%
McCarron
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
McCarron
Donato
Last 7: McCarron 3-4 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
0
1
McCarron
Donato
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Donato
1
2
McCarron
Donato
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
2
1
McCarron
Donato
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (672)
48.1% (258)
+5.0%
Power Play
18.2% (11)
43.2% (37)
-25.0%
On power play, Donato has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. McCarron is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (623).
McCarron shoots right. Donato is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (126).
Home / Away
McCarron
Donato
Home
52.8% (477)
45.8% (142)
Away
52.8% (411)
49.0% (153)
By Period
McCarron
Donato
P1
56.5%
48.1%
P2
53.2%
46.6%
P3
49.0%
46.8%
OT
0.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
52.3%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.8%
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 15:35 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 00:08 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 14:26 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 02:41 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 02:13 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |