Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. McCarron wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 54.0% vs Donato 45.4% (+9.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 90.2%
Defensive zone
McCarron 71.7%
Neutral zone
Donato 67.2%
Result
Ryan Donato favored at 69.0%
31.0%
69.0%
McCarron
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
McCarron
Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
0
2
McCarron
Donato
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
1
0
McCarron
Donato
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Donato
0
1
McCarron
Donato
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (756)
43.5% (400)
+10.7%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
48.7% (119)
+6.9%
Penalty Kill
55.1% (158)
33.3% (6)
+21.8%
On penalty kill, McCarron has a +21.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. McCarron is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (674).
McCarron shoots right. Donato is 44.3% vs right-shot opponents (192).
Home / Away
McCarron
Donato
Home
54.6% (445)
50.2% (279)
Away
54.2% (478)
38.2% (246)
By Period
McCarron
Donato
P1
53.6%
44.6%
P2
55.6%
46.6%
P3
53.7%
42.0%
OT
100.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
53.5%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
54.4%
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 19:20 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 19:18 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 15:24 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 11:11 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |