Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarron on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McCarron wins 58.7% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.8% vs Hartman 47.3% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McCarron 59.7%
Defensive zone
McCarron 86.3%
Neutral zone
McCarron 76.3%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 78.2%
78.2%
21.8%
McCarron
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
McCarron
Hartman
Last 7: McCarron 6-1 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
0
1
McCarron
Hartman
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
3
0
McCarron
Hartman
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
3
0
McCarron
Hartman
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (618)
47.1% (649)
+7.4%
Power Play
42.1% (19)
47.1% (68)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
35.3% (34)
45.2% (73)
-9.9%
On penalty kill, Hartman has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. McCarron is 58.7% vs right-shot opponents (208).
McCarron shoots right. Hartman is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (182).
Home / Away
McCarron
Hartman
Home
52.2% (339)
46.5% (361)
Away
54.2% (332)
47.3% (429)
By Period
McCarron
Hartman
P1
53.5%
45.1%
P2
50.6%
44.4%
P3
55.9%
50.9%
Final 5 min
45.9%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.2%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2024 | 3 | 06:33 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 17:32 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 17:10 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 2 | 07:15 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 1 | 07:37 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 1 | 07:27 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |