Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hartman on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.5% vs Hartman 45.5% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
McCarron leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Hartman 71.1%
Defensive zone
McCarron 83.8%
Neutral zone
McCarron 57.4%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 52.1%
52.1%
47.9%
McCarron
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
5
(12 meetings)
7
5
McCarron
Hartman
Last 10: McCarron 5-5 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
1
4
McCarron
Hartman
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
3
0
McCarron
Hartman
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
3
1
McCarron
Hartman
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (672)
44.8% (830)
+8.3%
Power Play
18.2% (11)
47.8% (92)
-29.6%
Penalty Kill
53.7% (205)
37.5% (16)
+16.2%
On power play, Hartman has a +29.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. McCarron is 49.1% vs right-shot opponents (265).
McCarron shoots right. Hartman is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (284).
Home / Away
McCarron
Hartman
Home
52.8% (477)
45.0% (515)
Away
52.8% (411)
44.9% (423)
By Period
McCarron
Hartman
P1
56.5%
46.5%
P2
53.2%
39.9%
P3
49.0%
48.6%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.3%
43.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.8%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 14:34 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 07:44 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 15:30 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 10:58 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 10:37 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:52 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 17:07 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 12:20 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 01:01 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 19:59 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 17:00 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:49 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |