Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McCarron wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 54.0% vs McLeod 52.1% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McLeod 71.1%
Defensive zone
McCarron 60.7%
Neutral zone
McLeod 57.1%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 56.0%
44.0%
56.0%
McCarron
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
McCarron
McLeod
Last 7: McCarron 2-5 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
2
McCarron
McLeod
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McCarron
McLeod
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
2
McCarron
McLeod
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (756)
52.9% (904)
+1.3%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
57.6% (59)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
55.1% (158)
49.0% (241)
+6.1%
On penalty kill, McCarron has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. McCarron is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (674).
McCarron shoots right. McLeod is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (420).
Home / Away
McCarron
McLeod
Home
54.6% (445)
51.8% (612)
Away
54.2% (478)
52.9% (592)
By Period
McCarron
McLeod
P1
53.6%
55.4%
P2
55.6%
50.8%
P3
53.7%
51.6%
OT
100.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
53.5%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
54.4%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 06:58 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 15:24 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:09 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 17:58 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 04:37 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |