Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.4% vs 54.3%). Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McCarron wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 54.0% vs Kuraly 53.7% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kuraly 53.8%
Defensive zone
McCarron 64.5%
Neutral zone
McCarron 50.8%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 56.0%
56.0%
44.0%
McCarron
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
McCarron
Kuraly
Last 7: McCarron 2-5 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
1
McCarron
Kuraly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
2
McCarron
Kuraly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
2
McCarron
Kuraly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (756)
55.3% (515)
-1.1%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
55.6% (9)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
55.1% (158)
44.8% (58)
+10.3%
On penalty kill, McCarron has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. McCarron is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (674).
McCarron shoots right. Kuraly is 47.7% vs right-shot opponents (195).
Home / Away
McCarron
Kuraly
Home
54.6% (445)
57.3% (293)
Away
54.2% (478)
51.2% (289)
By Period
McCarron
Kuraly
P1
53.6%
53.8%
P2
55.6%
51.5%
P3
53.7%
57.6%
OT
100.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
53.5%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
54.4%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 18:34 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 14:27 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 13:00 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 05:23 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 19:46 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 19:41 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 1 | 10:03 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |