Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. McCarron wins 58.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 54.9% vs Hertl 54.5% (+4.6%)
Offensive zone
Hertl 79.1%
Defensive zone
McCarron 73.3%
Neutral zone
McCarron 52.4%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
McCarron
Hertl
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
62.8% (86)
54.1% (1,117)
+8.7%
Power Play
50.0% (2)
59.8% (296)
-9.8%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (18)
34.4% (32)
+10.0%
On penalty kill, McCarron has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McCarron is 58.9% vs left-shot opponents (73).
McCarron shoots right. Hertl is 61.2% vs right-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
McCarron
Hertl
Home
59.5% (42)
54.3% (709)
Away
59.4% (64)
55.3% (736)
By Period
McCarron
Hertl
P1
71.0%
51.6%
P2
48.7%
53.6%
P3
61.1%
58.6%
Final 5 min
51.4%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
59.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%