Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). McCarron wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.5% vs Hertl 57.2% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 79.8%
Defensive zone
McCarron 92.4%
Neutral zone
McCarron 64.2%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 61.7%
61.7%
38.3%
McCarron
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
9
(14 meetings)
5
9
McCarron
Hertl
Last 10: McCarron 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
McCarron
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
3
2
McCarron
Hertl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
McCarron
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (672)
58.1% (823)
-5.0%
Power Play
18.2% (11)
56.2% (265)
-38.0%
Penalty Kill
53.7% (205)
62.9% (35)
-9.2%
On power play, Hertl has a +38.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McCarron is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (623).
McCarron shoots right. Hertl is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
McCarron
Hertl
Home
52.8% (477)
59.7% (561)
Away
52.8% (411)
55.9% (562)
By Period
McCarron
Hertl
P1
56.5%
51.6%
P2
53.2%
63.8%
P3
49.0%
58.6%
OT
0.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
52.3%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 08:07 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 09:57 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 14:41 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 09:06 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 02:23 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 01:41 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 17:07 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 16:01 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 12:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 19:54 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 19:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 11:52 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 03:46 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |