Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.8% vs Hertl 56.8% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 52.8%
Defensive zone
McCarron 71.6%
Neutral zone
McCarron 58.1%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 53.3%
53.3%
46.7%
McCarron
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
McCarron
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
McCarron
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
1
0
McCarron
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (618)
57.0% (718)
-2.5%
Power Play
42.1% (19)
64.9% (188)
-22.8%
Penalty Kill
35.3% (34)
44.2% (77)
-8.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +22.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McCarron is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (463).
McCarron shoots right. Hertl is 62.5% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Home / Away
McCarron
Hertl
Home
52.2% (339)
59.2% (463)
Away
54.2% (332)
56.0% (520)
By Period
McCarron
Hertl
P1
53.5%
56.3%
P2
50.6%
55.4%
P3
55.9%
60.5%
Final 5 min
45.9%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 13:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 11:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 06:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 12:10 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |