Scouting Report
Michael McLeod holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Nelson wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — McLeod shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs McLeod 51.3% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 69.8%
Defensive zone
McLeod 78.6%
Neutral zone
McLeod 54.8%
Result
Michael McLeod favored at 56.1%
43.9%
56.1%
Nelson
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
6
(15 meetings)
9
6
Nelson
McLeod
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
0
Nelson
McLeod
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
5
Nelson
McLeod
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
McLeod
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (586)
53.9% (534)
-5.4%
Power Play
51.9% (81)
59.1% (22)
-7.2%
Penalty Kill
57.5% (40)
32.5% (77)
+25.0%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots right. Nelson is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (357).
Nelson shoots left. McLeod is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (337).
Home / Away
Nelson
McLeod
Home
55.0% (362)
50.5% (275)
Away
43.5% (345)
52.2% (358)
By Period
Nelson
McLeod
P1
49.3%
50.5%
P2
53.6%
56.1%
P3
46.0%
47.7%
OT
33.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
48.7%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
McLeod
56.0%▼
63.5%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2021 | 2 | 08:45 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| May 8, 2021 | 1 | 10:38 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| May 8, 2021 | 1 | 07:52 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| May 8, 2021 | 1 | 04:06 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| May 6, 2021 | 3 | 19:58 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| May 6, 2021 | 3 | 19:40 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| May 6, 2021 | 3 | 18:49 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| May 6, 2021 | 1 | 17:27 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 2 | 07:34 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 2, 2021 | 3 | 13:09 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 3 | 10:19 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 2 | 18:11 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 1 | 17:56 | Neutral | Michael McLeod |
| Jan 21, 2021 | 2 | 16:49 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2021 | 1 | 09:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |