Scouting Report
Michael McLeod holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). McLeod wins 60.5% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 58.0% vs Sturm 56.1% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
McLeod leads 11-2 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
McLeod 57.1%
Defensive zone
McLeod 63.6%
Neutral zone
McLeod 67.8%
Result
Michael McLeod favored at 60.7%
60.7%
39.3%
McLeod
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
2
(13 meetings)
11
2
McLeod
Sturm
Last 10: McLeod 8-2 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
6
1
McLeod
Sturm
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
4
0
McLeod
Sturm
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McLeod
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (2,894)
57.1% (2,719)
+2.1%
Power Play
57.4% (101)
61.3% (62)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
53.5% (525)
51.0% (498)
+2.5%
On power play, Sturm has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. McLeod is 60.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,457).
McLeod shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
McLeod
Sturm
Home
58.2% (1,647)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
58.4% (1,873)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
McLeod
Sturm
P1
58.7%
56.5%
P2
59.9%
54.9%
P3
56.3%
57.4%
OT
63.6%
60.6%
Final 5 min
58.3%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
56.0%▼
63.5%
58.3%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2023 | 1 | 13:40 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Dec 1, 2023 | 1 | 13:21 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 1, 2023 | 1 | 04:16 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 3 | 14:15 | Offensive | Michael McLeod |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 2 | 10:14 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 09:09 | Offensive | Michael McLeod |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 09:05 | Offensive | Michael McLeod |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 05:17 | Neutral | Michael McLeod |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 02:01 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 1 | 01:32 | Offensive | Michael McLeod |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 1 | 01:28 | Offensive | Michael McLeod |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 3 | 10:08 | Offensive | Michael McLeod |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 1 | 16:30 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |