Scouting Report
Michael McLeod holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). McLeod wins 59.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 56.6% vs Hertl 52.3% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 86.6%
Defensive zone
McLeod 54.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 65.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 70.5%
29.5%
70.5%
McLeod
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
McLeod
Hertl
Last 9: McLeod 2-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
4
McLeod
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
McLeod
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
McLeod
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
58.3% (859)
51.6% (1,084)
+6.7%
Power Play
50.0% (28)
61.0% (246)
-11.0%
Penalty Kill
53.0% (168)
44.1% (136)
+8.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McLeod is 59.8% vs left-shot opponents (778).
McLeod shoots right. Hertl is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (526).
Home / Away
McLeod
Hertl
Home
55.3% (526)
55.2% (696)
Away
59.2% (529)
50.0% (770)
By Period
McLeod
Hertl
P1
60.7%
55.4%
P2
55.9%
54.8%
P3
55.2%
48.9%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.0%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
56.0%▼
63.5%
57.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2021 | 3 | 16:41 | Offensive | Michael McLeod |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 3 | 15:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 19:56 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 1 | 01:18 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 3 | 12:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 3 | 05:01 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 16:25 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 1 | 09:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 1 | 00:35 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |