Scouting Report
Michael McLeod holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). McLeod wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 59.6% vs Hertl 54.5% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 82.4%
Defensive zone
McLeod 78.8%
Neutral zone
McLeod 51.2%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 69.8%
30.2%
69.8%
McLeod
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
McLeod
Hertl
Last 8: McLeod 4-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
4
McLeod
Hertl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
3
0
McLeod
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
61.5% (792)
54.1% (1,117)
+7.4%
Power Play
65.2% (23)
59.8% (296)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
55.6% (153)
34.4% (32)
+21.2%
On penalty kill, McLeod has a +21.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McLeod is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (720).
McLeod shoots right. Hertl is 61.2% vs right-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
McLeod
Hertl
Home
62.0% (460)
54.3% (709)
Away
59.4% (508)
55.3% (736)
By Period
McLeod
Hertl
P1
61.5%
51.6%
P2
63.6%
53.6%
P3
56.2%
58.6%
OT
73.3%
45.5%
Final 5 min
60.8%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
56.0%▼
63.5%
60.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2023 | OT | 02:46 | Neutral | Michael McLeod |
| Jan 16, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael McLeod |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 3 | 19:50 | Neutral | Michael McLeod |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 3 | 16:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 2 | 04:25 | Offensive | Michael McLeod |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 19:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 15:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 08:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |