Scouting Report
Michael McLeod holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 11 meetings). McLeod wins 60.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 58.0% vs Hertl 54.2% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 11-7 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 83.9%
Defensive zone
McLeod 68.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 59.4%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 69.7%
30.3%
69.7%
McLeod
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
11
(18 meetings)
7
11
McLeod
Hertl
Last 10: McLeod 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
8
McLeod
Hertl
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
McLeod
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
3
1
McLeod
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (2,894)
53.8% (8,268)
+5.4%
Power Play
57.4% (101)
59.3% (1,975)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
53.5% (525)
46.3% (806)
+7.2%
On penalty kill, McLeod has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McLeod is 60.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,457).
McLeod shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
McLeod
Hertl
Home
58.2% (1,647)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
58.4% (1,873)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
McLeod
Hertl
P1
58.7%
53.6%
P2
59.9%
54.1%
P3
56.3%
55.3%
OT
63.6%
46.5%
Final 5 min
58.3%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
56.0%▼
63.5%
58.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2023 | 2 | 05:04 | Offensive | Michael McLeod |
| Jan 16, 2023 | OT | 02:46 | Neutral | Michael McLeod |
| Jan 16, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael McLeod |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 3 | 19:50 | Neutral | Michael McLeod |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 3 | 16:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 2 | 04:25 | Offensive | Michael McLeod |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 19:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 15:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 08:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 3 | 16:41 | Offensive | Michael McLeod |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 3 | 15:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 19:56 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 1 | 01:18 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 3 | 12:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 3 | 05:01 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 16:25 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 1 | 09:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 1 | 00:35 | Defensive | Michael McLeod |