Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sgarbossa 45.4% vs Hertl 51.4% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sgarbossa 63.1%
Defensive zone
Sgarbossa 59.9%
Neutral zone
Sgarbossa 63.5%
Result
Michael Sgarbossa favored at 63.3%
63.3%
36.7%
Sgarbossa
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Sgarbossa
Hertl
Last 6: Sgarbossa 2-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sgarbossa
2
1
Sgarbossa
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Sgarbossa
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sgarbossa
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
43.9% (296)
50.4% (367)
-6.5%
Power Play
53.3% (15)
64.6% (48)
-11.3%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (3)
49.2% (59)
-49.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +49.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Sgarbossa is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (211).
Sgarbossa shoots left. Hertl is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (260).
Home / Away
Sgarbossa
Hertl
Home
44.3% (185)
50.9% (220)
Away
43.4% (129)
52.4% (254)
By Period
Sgarbossa
Hertl
P1
43.2%
52.7%
P2
49.1%
52.8%
P3
39.6%
49.7%
OT
0.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
37.5%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sgarbossa
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.9%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2017 | 3 | 05:32 | Offensive | Michael Sgarbossa |
| Feb 15, 2017 | 2 | 07:59 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 15, 2017 | 1 | 15:25 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 15, 2017 | 1 | 04:51 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 25, 2016 | 3 | 01:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 25, 2016 | 1 | 08:20 | Offensive | Michael Sgarbossa |