Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zibanejad 51.7% vs Hertl 56.6% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 69.3%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 73.8%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 62.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 52.1%
47.9%
52.1%
Zibanejad
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Zibanejad
Hertl
Last 5: Zibanejad 2-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
2
1
Zibanejad
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Zibanejad
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zibanejad
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (591)
56.6% (632)
-2.8%
Power Play
47.4% (38)
58.7% (206)
-11.3%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (117)
63.6% (22)
-20.0%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Zibanejad is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (546).
Zibanejad shoots right. Hertl is 59.2% vs right-shot opponents (331).
Home / Away
Zibanejad
Hertl
Home
48.2% (307)
59.7% (434)
Away
54.4% (439)
54.9% (426)
By Period
Zibanejad
Hertl
P1
54.0%
51.0%
P2
51.0%
64.0%
P3
50.6%
57.8%
OT
55.6%
30.8%
Final 5 min
55.2%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zibanejad
46.0%▼
54.0%
51.9%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 19:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 14:48 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 01:53 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 15:09 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 08:05 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |