Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zibanejad 51.6% vs Hertl 57.2% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 74.6%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 74.4%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 50.2%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 55.0%
45.0%
55.0%
Zibanejad
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Zibanejad
Hertl
Last 5: Zibanejad 2-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
2
1
Zibanejad
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Zibanejad
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zibanejad
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (770)
58.1% (823)
-4.7%
Power Play
46.2% (39)
56.2% (265)
-10.0%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (141)
62.9% (35)
-18.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +18.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Zibanejad is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (697).
Zibanejad shoots right. Hertl is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Zibanejad
Hertl
Home
49.0% (429)
59.7% (561)
Away
54.1% (521)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Zibanejad
Hertl
P1
53.0%
51.6%
P2
51.1%
63.8%
P3
51.0%
58.6%
OT
60.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
56.5%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
51.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 19:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 14:48 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 01:53 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 15:09 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 08:05 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |