Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.3% vs 52.5%). Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Zibanejad wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zibanejad 52.2% vs Hertl 52.3% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Zibanejad 56.0%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 55.4%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 53.2%
Result
Mika Zibanejad favored at 55.7%
55.7%
44.3%
Zibanejad
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Zibanejad
Hertl
Last 10: Zibanejad 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Zibanejad
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Zibanejad
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zibanejad
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (955)
51.6% (1,084)
+2.4%
Power Play
55.6% (243)
61.0% (246)
-5.4%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (140)
44.1% (136)
-9.1%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Zibanejad is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,033).
Zibanejad shoots right. Hertl is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (526).
Home / Away
Zibanejad
Hertl
Home
55.2% (656)
55.2% (696)
Away
49.6% (682)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Zibanejad
Hertl
P1
56.3%
55.4%
P2
50.0%
54.8%
P3
51.2%
48.9%
OT
52.6%
33.3%
Final 5 min
47.9%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zibanejad
46.0%▼
54.0%
52.3%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2022 | 3 | 19:00 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 3 | 17:00 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 3 | 07:12 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 2 | 19:42 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 2 | 19:34 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 3, 2021 | 3 | 16:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 3, 2021 | 3 | 14:30 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 3, 2021 | 2 | 19:58 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 3, 2021 | 1 | 11:55 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 3, 2021 | 1 | 05:35 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |