Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Backlund 50.3% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 85.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 57.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 67.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 69.1%
69.1%
30.9%
Nelson
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
10
(13 meetings)
3
10
Nelson
Backlund
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
3
Nelson
Backlund
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
2
Nelson
Backlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
5
Nelson
Backlund
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
51.0% (1,205)
-4.9%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
59.3% (108)
-24.8%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
42.3% (234)
-11.9%
On power play, Backlund has a +24.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Backlund is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,012).
Home / Away
Nelson
Backlund
Home
48.7% (419)
51.2% (782)
Away
41.3% (368)
49.4% (765)
By Period
Nelson
Backlund
P1
44.6%
51.5%
P2
47.3%
49.8%
P3
43.0%
49.9%
OT
100.0%
37.5%
Final 5 min
39.4%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 08:11 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 08:38 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 06:38 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 09:49 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 06:02 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 05:58 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 03:26 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 03:12 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 10:24 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 08:18 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |