Brock Nelson vs Mikael Backlund
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 49.0%). Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (79% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Backlund 49.0% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 29-13 in 42 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 74.2%
Defensive zone
Backlund 54.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 60.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 59.3%
59.3%
40.7%
Nelson
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
29
(42 meetings)
13
29
Nelson
Backlund
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
6
6
Nelson
Backlund
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
3
11
Nelson
Backlund
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
4
12
Nelson
Backlund
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
49.7% (13,410)
-1.8%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
51.6% (1,336)
+2.9%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
44.0% (2,446)
-0.2%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Backlund is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (10,953).
Home / Away
Nelson
Backlund
Home
50.0% (5,845)
49.7% (8,565)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
48.3% (8,632)
By Period
Nelson
Backlund
P1
48.7%
48.5%
P2
48.5%
50.3%
P3
47.7%
48.4%
OT
45.6%
44.1%
Final 5 min
47.8%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 03:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 03:34 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 3 | 19:45 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 3 | 14:15 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 1 | 00:26 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 08:11 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 08:38 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 06:38 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 09:49 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 06:02 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 05:58 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 03:26 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 03:12 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 10:24 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 08:18 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 3 | 06:59 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 3 | 02:32 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |