Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.9% vs Backlund 48.3% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 14-3 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 83.4%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 95.1%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 90.2%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 89.2%
89.2%
10.8%
Pavelski
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
3
(17 meetings)
14
3
Pavelski
Backlund
Last 10: Pavelski 8-2 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
6
0
Pavelski
Backlund
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
1
Pavelski
Backlund
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
2
Pavelski
Backlund
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (682)
48.9% (568)
+4.5%
Power Play
63.7% (168)
52.3% (44)
+11.4%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (160)
32.7% (49)
+15.4%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Pavelski is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (790).
Pavelski shoots right. Backlund is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (205).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Backlund
Home
59.0% (527)
50.8% (327)
Away
49.3% (493)
45.4% (337)
By Period
Pavelski
Backlund
P1
50.8%
53.0%
P2
58.9%
47.8%
P3
53.6%
43.8%
OT
42.9%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.3%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2011 | 3 | 18:13 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 23, 2011 | 3 | 18:00 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 23, 2011 | 3 | 07:44 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 23, 2011 | 3 | 05:35 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 23, 2011 | 2 | 13:20 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 23, 2011 | 2 | 07:36 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 23, 2011 | 2 | 01:11 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 23, 2011 | 1 | 13:09 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 23, 2011 | 1 | 13:01 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 23, 2011 | 1 | 10:29 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 25, 2011 | 3 | 11:35 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 25, 2011 | 3 | 09:15 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 13, 2010 | 2 | 18:10 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 13, 2010 | 2 | 13:54 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 13, 2010 | 2 | 13:37 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 13, 2010 | 1 | 14:04 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 24, 2010 | 3 | 12:38 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |