Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Duchene wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.2% vs Backlund 48.1% (+6.9%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 73.5%
Defensive zone
Duchene 74.3%
Neutral zone
Duchene 81.9%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 77.5%
77.5%
22.5%
Duchene
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Duchene
Backlund
Last 10: Duchene 8-2 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
0
Duchene
Backlund
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Backlund
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
2
Duchene
Backlund
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
56.8% (706)
47.3% (357)
+9.5%
Power Play
56.1% (57)
55.0% (40)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (130)
30.0% (10)
+12.3%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Duchene is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (635).
Duchene shoots left. Backlund is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Duchene
Backlund
Home
56.6% (488)
45.0% (211)
Away
52.3% (405)
50.5% (196)
By Period
Duchene
Backlund
P1
52.0%
47.6%
P2
53.7%
53.0%
P3
58.5%
41.2%
OT
46.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.8%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.6%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2013 | 3 | 10:17 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 8, 2013 | 2 | 16:53 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Apr 8, 2013 | 2 | 11:57 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 8, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 27, 2013 | 3 | 18:20 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 27, 2013 | 3 | 02:54 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 27, 2013 | 2 | 00:38 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 31, 2013 | 3 | 18:49 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 31, 2013 | 2 | 08:46 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 31, 2013 | 2 | 05:25 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 31, 2013 | 1 | 05:05 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |