Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Backlund wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 50.3% vs Bjugstad 49.3% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Backlund 63.1%
Defensive zone
Backlund 68.0%
Neutral zone
Backlund 65.5%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 64.9%
64.9%
35.1%
Backlund
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
5
(15 meetings)
10
5
Backlund
Bjugstad
Last 10: Backlund 6-4 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
4
3
Backlund
Bjugstad
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
2
Backlund
Bjugstad
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
5
0
Backlund
Bjugstad
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (1,205)
50.7% (906)
+0.3%
Power Play
59.3% (108)
48.1% (108)
+11.2%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (234)
44.4% (239)
-2.1%
On power play, Backlund has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Backlund is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (535).
Backlund shoots left. Bjugstad is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (906).
Home / Away
Backlund
Bjugstad
Home
51.2% (782)
49.8% (643)
Away
49.4% (765)
48.7% (610)
By Period
Backlund
Bjugstad
P1
51.5%
49.4%
P2
49.8%
50.5%
P3
49.9%
47.9%
OT
37.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.3%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3 | 11:10 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3 | 04:23 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3 | 02:17 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3 | 00:12 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 2 | 15:01 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 2 | 14:46 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 2 | 11:53 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 2 | 09:01 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 2 | 01:03 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 09:00 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 12:04 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 00:15 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 13:58 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 07:56 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |