Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.7% vs 48.8%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.7% vs Bjugstad 49.1% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 54.5%
Defensive zone
Backlund 81.6%
Neutral zone
Backlund 58.6%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 68.0%
68.0%
32.0%
Backlund
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Backlund
Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
0
Backlund
Bjugstad
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
0
Backlund
Bjugstad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (891)
48.9% (280)
+1.2%
Power Play
53.1% (64)
50.0% (6)
+3.1%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (278)
47.2% (36)
+0.6%
On power play, Backlund has a +3.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Backlund is 49.2% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Backlund shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (254).
Home / Away
Backlund
Bjugstad
Home
48.1% (580)
48.4% (190)
Away
51.1% (653)
49.2% (132)
By Period
Backlund
Bjugstad
P1
45.1%
41.7%
P2
54.7%
56.6%
P3
49.0%
48.7%
OT
46.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
47.2%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 19:48 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 04:23 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |