Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on neutral-zone draws (73% H2H, 15 meetings). Backlund wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 50.3% vs Thomas 52.9% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 23-17 in 40 meetings
Offensive zone
Thomas 75.3%
Defensive zone
Backlund 60.9%
Neutral zone
Thomas 57.9%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 56.1%
43.9%
56.1%
Backlund
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
17
(40 meetings)
23
17
Backlund
Thomas
Last 10: Backlund 7-3 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
6
5
Backlund
Thomas
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
6
8
Backlund
Thomas
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
11
4
Backlund
Thomas
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (1,205)
53.2% (1,166)
-2.2%
Power Play
59.3% (108)
56.9% (262)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (234)
48.4% (221)
-6.1%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Backlund is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (535).
Backlund shoots left. Thomas is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,162).
Home / Away
Backlund
Thomas
Home
51.2% (782)
51.6% (830)
Away
49.4% (765)
54.7% (819)
By Period
Backlund
Thomas
P1
51.5%
52.7%
P2
49.8%
55.6%
P3
49.9%
50.6%
OT
37.5%
61.5%
Final 5 min
50.5%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.3%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 16:51 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 10:57 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 02:25 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 02:19 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 16:50 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 08:17 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 08:00 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 05:26 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 03:19 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 00:16 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 16:25 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 16:18 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 09:59 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 00:05 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 2 | 14:57 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 2 | 14:45 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |