Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.7% vs Donato 48.1% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 66.9%
Defensive zone
Backlund 90.1%
Neutral zone
Backlund 65.7%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 74.7%
74.7%
25.3%
Backlund
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Backlund
Donato
Last 9: Backlund 6-3 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
0
2
Backlund
Donato
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
5
1
Backlund
Donato
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
0
Backlund
Donato
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (891)
48.1% (258)
+2.0%
Power Play
53.1% (64)
43.2% (37)
+9.9%
On power play, Backlund has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (871).
Backlund shoots left. Donato is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (169).
Home / Away
Backlund
Donato
Home
48.1% (580)
45.8% (142)
Away
51.1% (653)
49.0% (153)
By Period
Backlund
Donato
P1
45.1%
48.1%
P2
54.7%
46.6%
P3
49.0%
46.8%
OT
46.2%
75.0%
Final 5 min
47.2%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 11:09 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 06:23 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 3 | 03:02 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 11:40 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:45 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 07:13 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 01:43 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 3 | 08:11 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 3 | 08:06 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |