Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (85% H2H, 13 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.0% vs Donato 44.9% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 13-4 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Backlund 64.1%
Defensive zone
Backlund 96.0%
Neutral zone
Backlund 88.6%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 91.4%
91.4%
8.6%
Backlund
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
4
(17 meetings)
13
4
Backlund
Donato
Last 10: Backlund 7-3 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
0
2
Backlund
Donato
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
11
2
Backlund
Donato
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
0
Backlund
Donato
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (13,410)
44.2% (1,179)
+5.5%
Power Play
51.6% (1,336)
46.3% (246)
+5.3%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (2,446)
36.4% (11)
+7.6%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Backlund is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (10,953).
Backlund shoots left. Donato is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (889).
Home / Away
Backlund
Donato
Home
49.7% (8,565)
47.2% (743)
Away
48.3% (8,632)
41.6% (693)
By Period
Backlund
Donato
P1
48.5%
43.4%
P2
50.3%
45.1%
P3
48.4%
44.4%
OT
44.1%
70.0%
Final 5 min
48.3%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 11:09 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 06:23 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 3 | 03:02 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 11:40 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:45 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 07:13 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 01:43 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 3 | 08:11 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 3 | 08:06 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Jan 13, 2025 | 2 | 14:21 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 13, 2025 | 2 | 10:30 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 12:46 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 07:23 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 04:31 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 1 | 07:16 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 1 | 01:21 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Feb 19, 2022 | 1 | 07:49 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |