Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Backlund wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 50.3% vs Carrick 53.0% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 50.8%
Defensive zone
Carrick 60.4%
Neutral zone
Carrick 53.7%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 60.4%
39.6%
60.4%
Backlund
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Backlund
Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
1
Backlund
Carrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (1,205)
53.9% (521)
-2.9%
Power Play
59.3% (108)
57.1% (35)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (234)
51.5% (229)
-9.2%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Backlund is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (535).
Backlund shoots left. Carrick is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Backlund
Carrick
Home
51.2% (782)
52.7% (408)
Away
49.4% (765)
54.1% (377)
By Period
Backlund
Carrick
P1
51.5%
51.4%
P2
49.8%
56.6%
P3
49.9%
52.1%
Final 5 min
50.5%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.3%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2023 | 3 | 13:09 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 3 | 08:41 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 1 | 10:16 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |