Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 50.8% vs Kuraly 49.7% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 78.6%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 74.4%
Neutral zone
Backlund 50.7%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 58.4%
41.6%
58.4%
Backlund
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Backlund
Kuraly
Last 8: Backlund 4-4 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
0
Backlund
Kuraly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
3
Backlund
Kuraly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
1
Backlund
Kuraly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (1,083)
49.2% (901)
+2.7%
Power Play
51.7% (120)
68.2% (22)
-16.5%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (183)
49.8% (219)
-5.5%
On power play, Kuraly has a +16.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Backlund is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (824).
Backlund shoots left. Kuraly is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Home / Away
Backlund
Kuraly
Home
51.9% (673)
51.7% (603)
Away
49.9% (713)
47.3% (539)
By Period
Backlund
Kuraly
P1
51.4%
50.9%
P2
50.5%
49.5%
P3
51.4%
49.1%
OT
35.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
50.2%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.9%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2023 | OT | 01:13 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 23, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 23, 2023 | 3 | 18:36 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 23, 2023 | 3 | 04:46 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 23, 2023 | 2 | 01:32 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 23, 2023 | 1 | 01:22 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 3 | 16:44 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 19:48 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |