Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 50.3% vs Kuraly 48.4% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kuraly 51.3%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 59.5%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 58.9%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 56.2%
43.8%
56.2%
Backlund
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Backlund
Kuraly
Last 5: Backlund 1-4 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
2
Backlund
Kuraly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
2
Backlund
Kuraly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (1,205)
49.4% (445)
+1.6%
Power Play
59.3% (108)
100.0% (3)
-40.7%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (234)
41.9% (117)
+0.4%
On power play, Kuraly has a +40.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Backlund is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,012).
Backlund shoots left. Kuraly is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (354).
Home / Away
Backlund
Kuraly
Home
51.2% (782)
49.2% (248)
Away
49.4% (765)
47.3% (317)
By Period
Backlund
Kuraly
P1
51.5%
48.3%
P2
49.8%
44.7%
P3
49.9%
51.7%
Final 5 min
50.5%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.3%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2024 | 3 | 04:18 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 2 | 00:59 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 2 | 00:42 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 20, 2023 | 3 | 16:25 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 20, 2023 | 1 | 17:08 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |