Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.7% vs Gourde 46.0% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Backlund 57.8%
Defensive zone
Backlund 80.9%
Neutral zone
Backlund 61.6%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 68.1%
68.1%
31.9%
Backlund
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
5
(13 meetings)
8
5
Backlund
Gourde
Last 10: Backlund 7-3 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
1
Backlund
Gourde
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
4
1
Backlund
Gourde
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
2
3
Backlund
Gourde
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (891)
47.2% (654)
+2.9%
Power Play
53.1% (64)
45.0% (20)
+8.1%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (278)
32.2% (87)
+15.6%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (871).
Backlund shoots left. Gourde is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (501).
Home / Away
Backlund
Gourde
Home
48.1% (580)
44.1% (322)
Away
51.1% (653)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Backlund
Gourde
P1
45.1%
42.4%
P2
54.7%
49.8%
P3
49.0%
44.3%
OT
46.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.2%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 17:41 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 10:04 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 16:32 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 13:26 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 09:06 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 06:30 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 06:21 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 03:26 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 03:15 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 15:49 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 08:36 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 01:37 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 01:26 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |