Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.8% vs 53.9%). Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Rantanen wins 53.4% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rantanen 53.2% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rantanen 81.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 89.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 58.7%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 61.4%
38.6%
61.4%
Rantanen
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Rantanen
O'Reilly
Last 5: Rantanen 3-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rantanen
2
0
Rantanen
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Rantanen
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rantanen
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (346)
55.0% (1,084)
-3.3%
Power Play
58.5% (164)
56.8% (303)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
40.3% (149)
-40.3%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +40.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Rantanen is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (290).
Rantanen shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
Rantanen
O'Reilly
Home
55.8% (258)
54.8% (759)
Away
51.8% (253)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Rantanen
O'Reilly
P1
50.0%
55.3%
P2
56.6%
51.9%
P3
54.3%
54.2%
OT
71.4%
64.7%
Final 5 min
45.4%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rantanen
50.0%▼
52.5%
53.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 16:25 | Defensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 01:13 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 16:03 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 2 | 06:11 | Offensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 1 | 00:23 | Offensive | Mikko Rantanen |