Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Barron wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barron 47.2% vs O'Reilly 54.8% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 53.5%
Defensive zone
Barron 90.9%
Neutral zone
Barron 71.5%
Result
Morgan Barron favored at 60.7%
60.7%
39.3%
Barron
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Barron
O'Reilly
Last 8: Barron 2-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
5
Barron
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barron
2
0
Barron
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Barron
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barron
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (359)
55.3% (815)
-6.0%
Power Play
33.3% (3)
58.0% (219)
-24.7%
Penalty Kill
41.5% (171)
49.2% (124)
-7.7%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +24.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Barron is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (376).
Barron shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (660).
Home / Away
Barron
O'Reilly
Home
44.9% (283)
55.8% (579)
Away
48.8% (250)
54.6% (579)
By Period
Barron
O'Reilly
P1
45.3%
57.5%
P2
50.5%
54.7%
P3
44.1%
54.1%
OT
33.3%
48.0%
Final 5 min
45.7%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barron
48.0%▲
40.5%
46.7%
O'Reilly
48.0%▼
54.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 11:14 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 18:02 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 04:51 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 12:27 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 12:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 18:27 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 05:56 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |