Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Barron wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barron 47.1% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barron 50.2%
Defensive zone
Barron 91.0%
Neutral zone
Barron 74.4%
Result
Morgan Barron favored at 63.4%
63.4%
36.6%
Barron
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Barron
O'Reilly
Last 8: Barron 2-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
5
Barron
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barron
2
0
Barron
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Barron
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barron
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (371)
55.4% (826)
-6.6%
Power Play
33.3% (3)
57.9% (221)
-24.6%
Penalty Kill
42.0% (174)
50.4% (129)
-8.4%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +24.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Barron is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (379).
Barron shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Barron
O'Reilly
Home
44.9% (283)
55.8% (579)
Away
48.3% (265)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Barron
O'Reilly
P1
44.8%
57.7%
P2
50.7%
54.8%
P3
43.6%
54.3%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
44.8%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barron
48.0%▲
41.0%
46.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 11:14 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 18:02 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 04:51 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 12:27 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 12:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 18:27 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 05:56 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |