Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Frost wins 54.9% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 55.7% vs Roy 51.9% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 92.5%
Defensive zone
Roy 67.6%
Neutral zone
Frost 69.2%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 60.1%
60.1%
39.9%
Frost
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Frost
Roy
Last 7: Frost 5-2 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
0
Frost
Roy
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
1
Frost
Roy
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Roy
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (701)
51.9% (547)
+3.0%
Power Play
60.8% (166)
54.1% (37)
+6.7%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (5)
53.3% (92)
+46.7%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +46.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Frost is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Frost shoots left. Roy is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (464).
Home / Away
Frost
Roy
Home
56.0% (443)
54.0% (328)
Away
56.6% (429)
50.6% (348)
By Period
Frost
Roy
P1
58.9%
53.5%
P2
55.3%
51.6%
P3
54.0%
51.6%
Final 5 min
51.4%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 10:08 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 17:13 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 14:15 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 13:17 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 03:45 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 18:05 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 04:06 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |