Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 50.3% vs Roy 48.4% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 86.0%
Defensive zone
Roy 71.4%
Neutral zone
Frost 57.5%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 55.2%
55.2%
44.8%
Frost
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Frost
Roy
Last 7: Frost 5-2 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
1
Frost
Roy
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Frost
Roy
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Frost
Roy
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (3,598)
48.7% (3,719)
+0.7%
Power Play
55.5% (625)
49.5% (283)
+6.0%
Penalty Kill
52.8% (36)
45.5% (477)
+7.3%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Frost is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (1,477).
Frost shoots left. Roy is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,288).
Home / Away
Frost
Roy
Home
51.0% (2,047)
49.5% (2,221)
Away
49.7% (2,212)
47.3% (2,258)
By Period
Frost
Roy
P1
50.8%
50.8%
P2
51.1%
46.3%
P3
48.5%
48.1%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.7%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
50.3%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 10:08 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 17:13 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 14:15 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 13:17 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 03:45 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 18:05 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 04:06 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |