Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 51.1% vs Roy 47.9% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 68.3%
Defensive zone
Roy 84.0%
Neutral zone
Roy 62.6%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 61.0%
39.0%
61.0%
Frost
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Frost
Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
Frost
Roy
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
Frost
Roy
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Frost
Roy
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
50.3% (825)
48.6% (679)
+1.7%
Power Play
54.9% (204)
48.0% (50)
+6.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (4)
34.7% (49)
+15.3%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Frost is 49.7% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Frost shoots left. Roy is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
Frost
Roy
Home
50.7% (489)
49.3% (345)
Away
51.7% (544)
46.4% (433)
By Period
Frost
Roy
P1
53.6%
47.6%
P2
47.8%
47.1%
P3
52.0%
47.9%
OT
66.7%
75.0%
Final 5 min
48.1%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
51.2%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
47.7%