Scouting Report
Ryan Carpenter holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Frost wins 45.1% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 46.2% vs Carpenter 52.2% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carpenter 55.7%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 77.8%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 52.2%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 77.8%
22.2%
77.8%
Frost
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Frost
Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
0
Frost
Carpenter
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (833)
53.1% (113)
-7.5%
Power Play
46.0% (100)
100.0% (1)
-54.0%
Penalty Kill
55.6% (18)
60.0% (10)
-4.4%
On power play, Carpenter has a +54.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Frost is 45.1% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Frost shoots left. Carpenter is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (88).
Home / Away
Frost
Carpenter
Home
47.0% (440)
58.5% (65)
Away
44.8% (511)
49.2% (59)
By Period
Frost
Carpenter
P1
42.5%
65.8%
P2
47.9%
50.0%
P3
46.6%
47.9%
Final 5 min
48.5%
43.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
45.8%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
54.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2 | 09:07 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 1 | 02:45 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |