Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Frost wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 49.5% vs Carpenter 48.2% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 93.1%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 58.9%
Neutral zone
Frost 60.6%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 76.2%
76.2%
23.8%
Frost
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Frost
Carpenter
Last 5: Frost 4-1 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
3
0
Frost
Carpenter
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
0
Frost
Carpenter
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
1
Frost
Carpenter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (704)
48.8% (404)
-0.2%
Power Play
55.7% (115)
100.0% (1)
-44.3%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
43.6% (101)
-18.6%
On power play, Carpenter has a +44.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Frost is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (331).
Frost shoots left. Carpenter is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (366).
Home / Away
Frost
Carpenter
Home
49.9% (399)
48.9% (274)
Away
49.1% (424)
46.6% (232)
By Period
Frost
Carpenter
P1
51.2%
51.9%
P2
53.9%
49.4%
P3
42.7%
41.8%
OT
40.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
49.5%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2024 | 3 | 12:46 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2 | 16:57 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2 | 13:34 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2 | 09:00 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2 | 02:42 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |