Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 50.3% vs Carpenter 48.5% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 95.3%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 59.1%
Neutral zone
Frost 63.5%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 67.4%
67.4%
32.6%
Frost
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Frost
Carpenter
Last 7: Frost 6-1 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
3
0
Frost
Carpenter
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
3
0
Frost
Carpenter
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
1
Frost
Carpenter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (3,598)
49.6% (2,027)
-0.2%
Power Play
55.5% (625)
41.5% (41)
+14.0%
Penalty Kill
52.8% (36)
43.9% (467)
+8.9%
On power play, Frost has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Frost is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (1,477).
Frost shoots left. Carpenter is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,840).
Home / Away
Frost
Carpenter
Home
51.0% (2,047)
51.2% (1,290)
Away
49.7% (2,212)
45.5% (1,245)
By Period
Frost
Carpenter
P1
50.8%
49.6%
P2
51.1%
47.7%
P3
48.5%
48.0%
OT
66.7%
55.6%
Final 5 min
48.7%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
50.3%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2024 | 3 | 12:46 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2 | 16:57 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2 | 13:34 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2 | 09:00 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2 | 02:42 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2 | 09:07 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 1 | 02:45 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |