Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +13.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Frost wins 45.1% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 46.2% vs Johansen 58.2% (-13.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 82.8%
Defensive zone
Frost 75.8%
Neutral zone
Frost 74.6%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 78.8%
78.8%
21.2%
Frost
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
8
(9 meetings)
1
8
Frost
Johansen
Last 9: Frost 1-8 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
1
3
Frost
Johansen
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
4
Frost
Johansen
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
1
Frost
Johansen
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (833)
59.8% (625)
-14.2%
Power Play
46.0% (100)
58.2% (196)
-12.2%
Penalty Kill
55.6% (18)
51.9% (27)
+3.7%
On even strength, Johansen has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Frost is 45.1% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Frost shoots left. Johansen is 60.4% vs left-shot opponents (594).
Home / Away
Frost
Johansen
Home
47.0% (440)
60.3% (436)
Away
44.8% (511)
58.0% (412)
By Period
Frost
Johansen
P1
42.5%
61.3%
P2
47.9%
60.4%
P3
46.6%
56.0%
OT
66.7%
56.3%
Final 5 min
48.5%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
45.8%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
59.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 09:07 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 05:01 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 01:11 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 14:59 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 11:41 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 02:06 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 01:43 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 1 | 01:25 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 16:08 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |