Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Frost wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 49.5% vs Johansen 52.8% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 71.1%
Defensive zone
Johansen 72.6%
Neutral zone
Frost 51.3%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 53.4%
46.6%
53.4%
Frost
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Frost
Johansen
Last 6: Frost 3-3 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
0
Frost
Johansen
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Johansen
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
1
2
Frost
Johansen
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (704)
51.9% (597)
-3.3%
Power Play
55.7% (115)
57.9% (133)
-2.2%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
54.3% (81)
-29.3%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +29.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Frost is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (331).
Frost shoots left. Johansen is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (584).
Home / Away
Frost
Johansen
Home
49.9% (399)
55.8% (387)
Away
49.1% (424)
50.7% (424)
By Period
Frost
Johansen
P1
51.2%
50.0%
P2
53.9%
56.2%
P3
42.7%
52.6%
OT
40.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
49.5%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 12:23 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 01:25 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 01:34 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 1 | 18:36 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 1 | 14:04 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 1 | 07:13 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |