Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Frost wins 57.0% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 55.7% vs McLeod 47.8% (+8.7%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 96.8%
Defensive zone
Frost 64.3%
Neutral zone
Frost 85.3%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 88.0%
88.0%
12.0%
Frost
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
2
(10 meetings)
8
2
Frost
McLeod
Last 10: Frost 8-2 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
5
1
Frost
McLeod
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
0
Frost
McLeod
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
McLeod
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (701)
49.2% (796)
+5.7%
Power Play
60.8% (166)
44.8% (87)
+16.0%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (5)
43.3% (263)
+56.7%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +56.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Frost is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (586).
Frost shoots left. McLeod is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (748).
Home / Away
Frost
McLeod
Home
56.0% (443)
49.2% (575)
Away
56.6% (429)
45.9% (571)
By Period
Frost
McLeod
P1
58.9%
52.8%
P2
55.3%
45.1%
P3
54.0%
45.6%
OT
70.0%
35.7%
Final 5 min
51.4%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 15:53 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 16:44 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 16:32 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 06:54 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 19:07 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 12:50 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 08:44 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 11:05 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 2 | 18:49 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 1 | 19:57 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |