Morgan Frost vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 51.1% vs Nugent-Hopkins 48.7% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 79.3%
Defensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 58.6%
Neutral zone
Frost 51.7%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 64.7%
64.7%
35.3%
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 9: Frost 5-4 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
3
2
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
50.3% (825)
50.3% (479)
+0.0%
Power Play
54.9% (204)
50.0% (28)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (4)
30.0% (50)
+20.0%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Frost is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (697).
Frost shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (384).
Home / Away
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
50.7% (489)
48.9% (270)
Away
51.7% (544)
48.1% (287)
By Period
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
53.6%
48.7%
P2
47.8%
50.0%
P3
52.0%
47.3%
OT
66.7%
36.4%
Final 5 min
48.1%
43.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
51.2%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 16:00 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 02:03 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 08:26 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 19:52 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 08:26 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 01:22 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 01:18 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 16:50 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 00:43 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |