Morgan Frost vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 50.3% vs Nugent-Hopkins 44.8% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 15-10 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 86.1%
Defensive zone
Frost 50.9%
Neutral zone
Frost 71.9%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 74.0%
74.0%
26.0%
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
10
(25 meetings)
15
10
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 10: Frost 5-5 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
7
4
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
2
3
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
6
3
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (3,598)
44.9% (8,756)
+4.5%
Power Play
55.5% (625)
50.7% (839)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
52.8% (36)
37.9% (879)
+14.9%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Frost is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,782).
Frost shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,841).
Home / Away
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
51.0% (2,047)
46.5% (5,350)
Away
49.7% (2,212)
42.9% (5,136)
By Period
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
50.8%
45.1%
P2
51.1%
43.9%
P3
48.5%
45.3%
OT
66.7%
43.5%
Final 5 min
48.7%
43.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
50.3%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 09:28 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 8, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 01:04 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 01:00 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 2 | 01:52 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 1 | 05:48 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 16:00 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 02:03 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 08:26 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 19:52 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 08:26 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 01:22 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 01:18 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 16:50 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 00:43 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 1 | 16:57 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 3 | 14:04 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 2 | 11:37 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 2 | 09:56 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |