Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Frost wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 49.5% vs Stamkos 55.2% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 66.0%
Defensive zone
Frost 54.8%
Neutral zone
Frost 54.5%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 54.6%
54.6%
45.4%
Frost
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Frost
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Frost
Stamkos
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (704)
55.9% (499)
-7.3%
Power Play
55.7% (115)
56.3% (126)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
58.3% (12)
-33.3%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Frost is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (331).
Frost shoots left. Stamkos is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (486).
Home / Away
Frost
Stamkos
Home
49.9% (399)
55.3% (349)
Away
49.1% (424)
56.9% (288)
By Period
Frost
Stamkos
P1
51.2%
57.0%
P2
53.9%
59.2%
P3
42.7%
51.5%
OT
40.0%
55.6%
Final 5 min
50.0%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
49.5%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2024 | 2 | 14:16 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 01:21 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 1 | 12:36 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |