Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.3% vs 51.0%). Look for Stamkos on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 50.3% vs Stamkos 51.0% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 56.4%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 64.0%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 52.8%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 55.7%
44.3%
55.7%
Frost
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Frost
Stamkos
Last 10: Frost 6-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
0
Frost
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
4
Frost
Stamkos
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
4
2
Frost
Stamkos
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (3,598)
50.4% (9,799)
-1.0%
Power Play
55.5% (625)
55.1% (1,725)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
52.8% (36)
49.7% (825)
+3.1%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +3.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Frost is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (1,477).
Frost shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (8,778).
Home / Away
Frost
Stamkos
Home
51.0% (2,047)
52.7% (6,248)
Away
49.7% (2,212)
49.3% (6,127)
By Period
Frost
Stamkos
P1
50.8%
49.1%
P2
51.1%
52.7%
P3
48.5%
50.9%
OT
66.7%
54.3%
Final 5 min
48.7%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
50.3%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 01:26 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 10:46 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 11:16 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 14:25 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 16:18 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 13:20 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 06:17 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 2 | 14:16 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 01:21 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 1 | 12:36 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 13:17 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 09:00 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 08:46 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |