Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.3% vs 55.7%). Frost wins 54.9% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 55.7% vs Stamkos 54.6% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 67.7%
Defensive zone
Frost 62.6%
Neutral zone
Frost 59.2%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 63.0%
63.0%
37.0%
Frost
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Frost
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
0
Frost
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
1
0
Frost
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (701)
56.1% (342)
-1.2%
Power Play
60.8% (166)
53.3% (92)
+7.5%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (5)
62.5% (8)
+37.5%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +37.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Frost is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Frost shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
Frost
Stamkos
Home
56.0% (443)
53.4% (208)
Away
56.6% (429)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Frost
Stamkos
P1
58.9%
55.6%
P2
55.3%
52.8%
P3
54.0%
59.1%
OT
70.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
51.4%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 01:26 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 10:46 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 11:16 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 14:25 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |