Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 51.1% vs Stamkos 49.9% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 55.9%
Defensive zone
Frost 60.9%
Neutral zone
Frost 56.7%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 56.4%
56.4%
43.6%
Frost
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Frost
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
0
Frost
Stamkos
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
50.3% (825)
49.3% (670)
+1.0%
Power Play
54.9% (204)
53.7% (121)
+1.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (4)
33.3% (3)
+16.7%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Frost is 49.7% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Frost shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (610).
Home / Away
Frost
Stamkos
Home
50.7% (489)
54.0% (400)
Away
51.7% (544)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Frost
Stamkos
P1
53.6%
48.6%
P2
47.8%
54.5%
P3
52.0%
45.4%
OT
66.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
48.1%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
51.2%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 16:18 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 13:20 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 06:17 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |