Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.9% vs 49.7%). Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 49.9% vs Johnson 49.7% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 80.8%
Defensive zone
Johnson 51.1%
Neutral zone
Frost 63.4%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 64.5%
64.5%
35.5%
Frost
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Frost
Johnson
Last 8: Frost 7-1 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
3
0
Frost
Johnson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
1
Frost
Johnson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
2
0
Frost
Johnson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (3,418)
49.8% (5,396)
-0.8%
Power Play
55.0% (600)
54.6% (885)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
52.8% (36)
42.3% (707)
+10.5%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Frost is 49.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,400).
Frost shoots left. Johnson is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (4,785).
Home / Away
Frost
Johnson
Home
50.9% (1,943)
52.5% (3,460)
Away
49.0% (2,111)
46.8% (3,528)
By Period
Frost
Johnson
P1
50.3%
50.1%
P2
51.0%
50.6%
P3
48.0%
48.4%
OT
64.5%
42.5%
Final 5 min
48.7%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
74.0%▲
55.0%
49.9%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 08:42 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 04:33 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 04:31 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 08:32 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 00:17 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 13:54 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 2 | 02:13 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 1 | 04:14 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |